Bowtie Betting NFL

Last week: 1-2

Year to date: 12-12

After last week I am sure I know one thing: the Bengals have gone from a turkey sandwich to one of those breakfast burritos from Bob Evans — they are usually going to be more than you bargained for.  ”Oh, I feel like something different this morning.  What’s this, a breakfast burrito?  Sure, why the hell not?”  Then bam!  They drop a 2-pound tortilla in front of you the size of a dad gum fireplace log.  Believe  me, you don’t want to mess with the burrito log and you don’t want to mess with the Bengals.  You may finish it and/or beat them, but you’ll be worse for wear in the morning.

Jacksonville (+7) @ New York Jets

Upset special time?  You know it, my friend!  The funny thing is, I have no confidence in either of these teams and I don’t have the darnedest clue if either of them are any good or not.  But Maurice Jones-Drew was on the fantasy team of the guy that beat me two weeks ago, and he had like 8 rushes for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns.  That’s gotta count for something, and it did: 36 points and a bunch of red marks on my rear from the proverbial spanking I got that week.  Not from anyone in particular, though.  It was like an imaginary spanking.  Think of that one scene from The Davinci Code, except without those weird whips the guy was using.  And also without the actual spanking.  What was I talking about again?

Denver (-4) @ Washington

Anyone remember the old Saturday morning cartoon “Denver the Last Dinosaur?”  I do, and when I was typing out the word “Denver” just now, it made it me think of it.  That really has nothing to do with this game, just thought I’d share.  Anyways.  The Redskins suck, have 2 injured running backs, and couldn’t fight their away out of a paper bag.  Meanwhile, the Broncos have lost two games they in all likelihood should have lost, at Baltimore and at home against the Steelers.  True, they aren’t an elite team, but they are still good enough to beat the red-headed stepchild of the NFL.  Someone call the Department of Child and Family Services.

Atlanta (-1.5) @ Carolina

Kind of surprised this line was so low, but I guess that’s why I don’t make the lines for Vegas.  If I did, this game would probably be at like -7.  And when the line I’d make is that far away from what the actual line is, I like my odds.  When the team I’m betting against has Jake Delhomme as a quarterback, I like those odds even more.  Carolina is like the ugly girl who you know is attracted to you: sometimes they look good enough in the right light, but the more you look at them the more you realize that they’re still too ugly for you to fool around with, no matter how desperate you are.  Sorry, Carolina.  I’m not that desperate.  Yet.

VJ

Last week: 1-2

Year to date: 11-10

I learned a few things last week: 1) When betting against Buffalo, bet everything you own.  Your house, car, grandma, it doesn’t matter.  Buffalo stinks so bad, skunks hold their nose when they watch a game.  Let me rephrase that:  Buffalo stinks so bad, even skunks can’t watch them.  That’s better.  2) Stay away from the Jets.  One minute, their rookie QB is laughing it up, eating hot dogs on the sideline during a blowout win, and the next week you see them losing to the Dolphins.  Twice!  It was a very sobering weekend for me.  And I’m not saying that because I don’t drink.  It was more sober than normal.

Houston (+9) @ Indianapolis

I normally don’t like betting against Indi at home, especially because they’re capable of blowing out any team in the league.  However, the Texans have been playing as well as anyone lately, despite Steve Slaton replacing his fingers with sticks of butter.  There should be a better nickname for him than butterfingers, but if his fingers were actually replaced with sticks of butter, well, then I don’t really have much of a choice now do I?  Anyways, nine just seems like a big number for me.  Just in the context of this game and gambling, not with numbers in general.  In that case, nine isn’t nearly as big as a 100 trillion.  You get my point.

San Francisco (-4) vs. Tennessee

The University of Texas has a long, storied history of producing great college players that end up being extremely below average in the NFL.  Roy Williams, Limas Sweed, Derrick Johnson, Michael Huff, and my personal favorite: Vince Young.  This guy plays the “I’m crappy, but I’ll run around and make three plays that will convince people I’m ‘putting it all together’” role better than anyone.  Hell, he won Rookie of the Year and now look at him?  Does he really look like a guy that’s “putting it all together?”  No, he looks like a guy that throws like he has a wet noodle for an arm.  That doesn’t impress me.  And yes, I like pasta, so I don’t want to hear any of those antipasto comments.  Haha, get it?

Baltimore (-3) @ Cincinnati

Last week the Ravens took my Broncos out to pasture.  And shot them.  Up until that week, their defense had been playing God awful, and that’s putting it nicely.  Meanwhile, no one has told the Bengals that they are, in fact, still the Bengals.  So they just keep on churning out victories and act like they’re the cats pajamas.  If you remember my analogy from a few weeks ago, I compared the Bengals to a turkey sandwich: good enough to satisfy your hunger, but never one of top things you’d actually want to eat for lunch.  This is the week that turkey sandwich gets moldy.  Fortunately, I think ravens eat moldy food.  Or maybe I’m thinking of vultures.  Eh, whatever, I’m sure they’re all part of the same bird family.

VJ

Last week: 0-0 (on Sabbatical)

Year to date: 7-8

No picks last week, I was busy tending to my rice paddies on some land in Asia.  No worries though, I’m back and better than ever this week.  Although let’s be honest, I couldn’t get much worse.

Philadelphia (-7) @ Washington

In losing to the Raiders, the Eagles committed the NFL equivalent of getting drunk and making out with a 200-pound transvestite prostitute.  I can almost guarantee that the team woke up Monday morning and didn’t have any recollection of what had happened, and only until they saw the game film did they accept it as actually happening.  Seriously though, the Raiders?  Al Davis looks like the Cryptkeeper stuffed inside an old Oakland warmup suit, Tom Cable belongs in the WWE, and Jamarcus Russell is acting like every Sunday is Halloween by dressing up as an NFL quarterback.

Meanwhile, the Redskins have lost to the Lions and the Chiefs, and beat the Rams by 2 points.    Consider this as serving the sacrificial lamb slathered in blood and boiled carrots to a hungry bear.  Bon appetit.

San Diego (-5) @ Kansas City

I loved watching San Diego fall apart against my Broncos last week, especially considering Philip Rivers acts like every game is a fight during 5th grade recess.  However, as much joy as I get out of watching them lose, I still think they have something left in the tank.  And by that I mean there’s no reason in hell they can’t be the Chiefs by a touchdown.  Hell, the Naperville North sophomore football team from 2002 could beat the Kansas City Chiefs, and that’s not because I was an undersized free safety.  The Chargers at least have a few pro bowlers left on their roster, while the Chiefs have approximately 1.2 good players.  Do the math, it never lies.

Dallas (-4) vs. Atlanta

Dallas is coming off a bye week, and as long as the entire team didn’t spend the week  doing blow off a hooker’s g-string, I like their odds in this game.  The Bears snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the Falcons on Sunday Night, but the Falcon’s passing game and defense looked pretty decent nonetheless.  Either way, I always feel good about taking a home team coming off a bye, and being a fellow EIU alumna  with Tony Romo, I’m always going to be the guy betting on him to succeed when others wait for him to fail.  That sounded inspirational, someone chisel that into a granite slab and put it in front of Cowboy Stadium.

Last week: 2-1

Year to date: 5-4

Sometimes you’re hot, sometimes you’re not.  And sometimes you just kind of hover somewhere in between like I did last week.  In retrospect, I would have been stupid to not bet on Denver.  Much like Oakland would have been stupid to take Jamarcus Russell first overall back in 2007.  And for those keeping score at home, Al Davis- stupid, Matt Lythberg- not stupid.  As for the Tennessee/New York Jets game, well, that’s what I get for betting against the second coming of Joe Montana.  In all fairness though, I did say I liked the Jets, and was hoping this would just be a slip-up in their season, as opposed to the Titans just being a better team.  But making excuses is like trying to cover up pooping in your pants, because even if you get away with it, you’re still a loser.

And away we go!

San Diego (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh

To be honest, I don’t quite know what to make of either of these teams anymore.  Pittsburgh’s defense has gone from stiff to flacid (insert your own joke here), and now they can’t run the ball either.  On the other side of the coin, the Chargers just seem to always play up or down to the opponent regardless of who they are.  So where does that leave us?  Well, I figure the Chargers have a decent chance of pulling the upset here, or at the very least keeping it close.  Neither of these teams can afford to lose this game; Pittsburgh would be in a huge hole at 1-3 behind Baltimore, and the Chargers would need to pull a 2nd half comeback in the same fashion as last year if the Broncos maintain some sort of consistent winning.  Should be a close game either way.

Buffalo (-2) @ Miami

I don’t really care for either of these teams, nor do I think either of them is that great. But now that noodle-armed Chad Pennington is out for the year, I just can’t see Buffalo losing this game. Compound that with the fact that Marshawn Lynch is now out of jail, or was acquitted on a manslaughter charge, or whatever the hell he’s up to now, and the Bills are just slightly better right now. This game is basically like a boxing match between two blind guys — one of them is going to end up winning, but it’s almost going to be by accident. Consider this me betting on the blind guy that has a better right cross.

Cincinnati (-5.5) @ Cleveland

If the Bengals were playing anyone other than the Browns, this would be the most ludicrous line of the year.  But lo and behold, they are playing the Browns. Heyooo!
Should the Bengals be worried now that Derek Anderson, he of the single flukiest year in recent memory, has been named starter?  Well, let me answer that question with another question: Has Derek Anderson ever scared a single a defensive player in the history of his life?  Checkmate, friend.

VJ

Last week: 1-2

Year to date: 3-3

Ok, so last week was a little rough.  I fell victim to drinking the famed New England Patriots Kool-Aid, and ended up running into that ugly girl I met online (Jay Cutler).  I don’t think my analysis or instinct was wrong on those games, just caught a few bad breaks.  But you know what’s good about breaks?  They heal over time.  Like one time when I was like 4, I slipped on an empty pop can and fell down the stairs, breaking my wrist.  Sure it hurt, but eventually that wrist healed and now I have one regular wrist and one superhuman wrist.  I call it my “power wrist.”  I won’t get into what I use it for.

Tennessee (+3) @ New York Jets

I’m a big Mark Sanchez guy, and I think he’s going to do great things in the league.  It’s not that I don’t have confidence in him or in the Jets, because they remind me of last years Ravens team: great defense, good running game, rookie QB that can handle the pressure and make tough throws.  It’s just that the Jets can’t and won’t go 16-0; they’re going to lose a few tough games once in a while, and I think this is one of those spots.  It seems inevitable for some sort of emotional letdown after the huge win over the Patriots last week, and despite their 0-2 record, I still believe the Titans are a tough team.  Plus that Chris Johnson dude is legit.  And if I were LenWhale White, I’d take up drinking and get fat again so I can actually start doing something productive on the field, because this new “skinny” version of you is downright terrible.

Denver (-1.5) @ Oakland Raiders

Jamarcus Russell is the worst quarterback I have ever seen.  He has two things going for him: he’s super rich, and he’s super terrible at throwing the football.  One of those two things is not good for his football career.  I know he’s kind of mobile, which does help, but let’s be honest, we’re not talking about Steve Bono-type mobility.

For the record, I am a Broncos fan.  Also for the record,  I thought the Broncos would be absolutely awful this year, which they still might be.  But they seem to be just average enough to take advantage of the putrid stink that comes out of Russell’s right arm.  If there were a word for a reverse barnburner, this would be it.  Either way, if Denver drops this one I’ll never forgive myself.

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Minnesota Vikings

Brett Favre has not won the last two games for the Vikings, only because he hasn’t had to.  Minnesota has played probably the two worst teams in football, and Adrian Peterson has proverbially peed in their faces a la R. Kelly.  However, the 49ers are not some naive 15-year-old girl that will take kindly to that kind of treatment, and I don’t think Brett Favre can single-handedly win games like he used to.  He can lose them, though.
True, the Niners are not a great team, but they are an above average/good team that has a legitimate stud in Patrick Willis on their defense.  And while the Vikings have probably gotten used to letting AD take over the games and win them, it won’t work here.  It’s kind of like playing Madden on the varsity level, where you can get away with just running play-action bombs on 3rd and long.  Then you turn up the difficulty level and realize that you’re just not as good as you thought you were.  That’s how I see this setting up.

VJ